Guinea Bissau: What next?

The democratically elected President of Guinea Bissau was assasinated by soldiers on Monday 2nd 2009
MONDAY’S 2nd March assassination of President Joao Bernardo Veira of Guinea Bissau is likely to make a lot of people wag their heads about what the future holds for the impoverish west African state. Like so many countries in Africa, Guinea Bissau development programmes are highly dependent on foreign aid. Of all the challenges facing the former Portuguese colony; it seems illegal drugs trade and internal political strife remains an enigma even for the common people in the country.

(Amilcar Cabral fought for Guinea Bissau liberation war)
Specter of the past
At a time when the international community is keenly monitoring events in Conakry following the death of General Lansana Conteh; the army led by Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara took advantage of the situation and assumed power. The situation in Bissau has once again brought to the fore the political vulnerabilities pervading its ugly head in the sub region. A pessimist might hasten to add: A snail may try but it cannot cast off its shell, but this may not be the case, for there is more to Guinea Bissau than war and civil strife. After all, was it not the country where the celebrated Pan Africanist Amilcar Cabral fought a guerilla war against Portuguese domination.

Casting one’s mind to the olden days; Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde had been claimed by Portugal since 1446 and was a major trading post for slaves during the 18th century. The interior was however not conquered until the latter half of the 19th century. While there has been resistance it was not until 1956 the first liberation movement was founded by Amilcar Cabral and Rafael Barbosa, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde ( PAIGC).

Like most political movements, the PAIGC faced a number of challenges and for the first major activity the organization embarked upon was a strike by dock workers in Bissau on August 3rd 1959. The colonial police violently repressed the strike and more than fifty people died, the incident became known as the Pijiguiti Massacre; according to historians this incident led to a major upswing of popular support for the PAIGC.
In 1961, the PAIGC entered ”Portugese” Guinea (today Guinea-Bissau) from neighbouring Guinea (today Guinea-Conakry) and began to arm and mobilise the peasants. The PAIGC was viewed as a model for revolutionary armies in many parts of the world, mainly because of it's political strategy during the war of liberation. It liberated one part of the country at the time, and helped villagers build schools and roads, provided medical services and promoted the farming of rice instead of groundnuts.

It also encouraged widespread political participation, and as the movement grew bigger more and more people got control over their own lives. From the very start, the people of Guinea-Bissau belived in what they were fighting for. It wasn't just about kicking the portugese out, but also to give the people the power back and make it a lasting revolution. In many villages, money was not used at all and the land was collectively owned. As the PAIGC´s numbers grew to about 10.000 militants, the portugese responded by increasing their troops to 25.000 plus 10.000 conscripted Africans. Despite this, within five years half of the country was in PAIGC hands.
As part of efforts to undermine the organizational structure of PAIGC, Portugal had tried to kill Amilcar Cabral for several years. After failing to capture him in 1970 the Portuguese started using agents within the PAIGC to remove Cabral. Together with a disgruntled former associate, agents assassinated Amilar Cabral on 20th January 1973, in Conakry. Portugal granted full independence to Guinea Bissau on 10th September 1974, after 11 and half years of armed conflict.

Luis Cabral, half brother of Amilcar Cabral became president. Following independence from Portugal, local soldiers that fought along with the Portuguese army against the PAIGC were slaughtered. A number of them escaped to Portugal or other African nations. In 1980, PAIGC admitted in its newspaper ‘No Pintcha’ ( dated 29 November 1980) that many were executed and buried in unmarked collective graves in the words of Cumera Portogole and Mansaba.
Once in power, the new PAIGC goverment had huge problems. The portugese had seen Guinea-Bissau as a little more than a cheap source of groundnuts and had done nothing to develop the country. 1 in 20 people could read, life expectancy was 35 years and 45% of children died before the age of five. In 1980 the president Luiz Cabral was overthrown in a bloodless coup while he was visiting Capo Verde. He fled to Portugal, and left his nice residence on the beatiful island of Bubaque in the Arquipé

João (Nino) Viera, also a PAIGC-man, took over and continued to follow the marxist path. Or at least, that's what they said. As many other ”marxists”, the leaders of the party talked a lot about the importance of solidarity and classless organization, but instead became a ruling class with endless power and privileges. In 1986, following a serious coup attempt the previous year, the goverment officially completely reversed its policies, devalued the currency and began privatizing the land. The World Bank and the IMF were involved in this, off course. Things quickly worsened for the people of Guinea-Bissau, who once again were getting exploited by European and American economic interests

Viera survived three coup attempts, while keeping the PAIGC in power. Guinea-Bissau remained extremely poor and, in 1997, teachers, health workers and other state employees went on strike to protest about, among other things, foreign aid money gone ”missing” in the hands of the goverment.On 6 june 1998, General Ansumane Mane, the head of the army, allegedly got sacked for providing the MFDC (Mouvement des Forces Démocratiques de Casamance), the separatist rebel group in neighbouring Senegal, with arms. The following day, he took a majority of the countrys soldiers with him and declared war on the goverment. They were called Junta Militar and were backed up by the MFDC and most of the people of Guinea-Bissau who were fed up with the corrupt politicians.

General Ansumana Manneh was also killed by soldiers

Due to the geographical proximity of these nations, and in the spirit of helping one neighbor when his house is on fire; the Gambian President Yahya AJJ Jammeh invited Manneh and Veira to Bamjul with a view to settling the stalemate. The symbolic handshake between Manneh and Veira spoke volumes about the relationship that exists between Banjul and Veira. Not only were they comrade-in-arms, the two leaders were reportedly bosom friends while serving in the Bissau Army.
The meeting in Banjul and the subsequent one in Abuja provided a unique opportunity for General Manneh to occupy an instrumental position in the Veira administration, and the guns were silent for some time. And it all re-started again, when the seed of discord that seems to be haunting the county paved the way for another war, this time Ansumana Manneh was killed in November 1999.

In the 2005 Presidential election, Veira disclosed his intention to challenge the incumbent President Koumba Yalla, the BBC reporter asked Veira why he was interested in assuming power again. Speaking through an interpreter, Veira said there are some important developments that he needed to accomplish.

In Bissau, power struggle and lack of unity are some of the biggest challenges the authorities are yet to overcome. Despite the size of her country, The Gambia has played an important role in the socio-economic development of Bissau. In the count down to the local government elections in November 2008, 16 political parties in Bissau took part in an international workshop convened by His Excellency the President Professor Yahya AJJ Jammeh. The meeting gave the political parties a rare opportunity to discuss the teething problems facing their country and suggested various means of addressing them.
At a time when many people thought Bissau Guineans have now put the past behind them, the assassination of President Veira has again raised doubts: where is the country heading to?
The economy

Political instability has had a negative impact on the country's economy

A country that has a chequered history of political instability can hardly register any meaningful progress; according to the 2008 Human development Index,Guinea Bissau occupies the 175 position out 177 countries. In 1998; the civil war led to a 28% drop in GDP that year, with partial recovery in 1999. Agricultural production is estimated to have fallen by 17% during the conflict, and the civil war led to a 28% overall drop in GDP in 1998. Cashew nut output, the main export crop, declined in 1998 by an estimated 30%. World cashew prices dropped by more than 50% in 2000, compounding the economic devastation caused by the conflict. Real GDP has steadily grown at an average of 2.3% from 2003 onwards.

Before the war, trade reform and price liberalization were the most successful part of the country's structural adjustment program under IMF sponsorship. The tightening of monetary policy and the development of the private sector had also begun to reinvigorate the economy. Under the government’s post-conflict economic and financial program, implemented with IMF and World Bank input, real GDP recovered in 1999 by almost 8%. In December 2000 Guinea-Bissau qualified for almost $800 million in debt-service relief under the first phase of the enhanced
(Sources: wikipedia, Facts from Lonely Planet "West Africa" and Gérard Chaliand "Lutte armée en Afrique" (Armed struggle in Africa)